Thursday April 29, 2021

Update - Covid Curve April 2021

Author:  Adit Jain, IMA India 

The Covid Curve

At the time of writing this paper –April 27th2021 –India accounted for 17.6 million Covid cases with 198,000 deaths. This note will undertake a historical analysis of the infection rate with a view to reaching some conclusions on possible directions of the infection curve. Between the 15thFebruary 2020,when it became clear that a virus-based ailment was spreading rapidly in China,and the 30thApril, the number of cases in India were negligible. In fact, on the 15thMay, daily infections were recorded to be 3,787. The Government of India had declared a national lockdown last year in end-Marchwhich, whilst inflicting serious damageon economic activity, had a flipside. The spread of the pandemic was strictly curbed. The lockdown effectively continued for several months but with a phased easing of restrictions and eventuallya return to some semblance of normality by November 2020. Effectively, the restraining conditions were reduced in a way that followed the infection curve, which peaked in mid-September at about 98,000cases. Bythe 20thNovember,daily infectionshadfallen to 46,000 and on the 2ndFebruary 2021,to a minuscule 11,000cases.

At the time of writing this paper –April 27th2021 –India accounted for 17.6 million Covid cases with 198,000 deaths. This note will undertake a historical analysis of the infection rate with a view to reaching some conclusions on possible directions of the infection curve. Between the 15thFebruary 2020,when it became clear that a virus-based ailment was spreading rapidly in China,and the 30thApril, the number of cases in India were negligible. In fact, on the 15thMay, daily infections were recorded to be 3,787. The Government of India had declared a national lockdown last year in end-Marchwhich, whilst inflicting serious damageon economic activity, had a flipside. The spread of the pandemic was strictly curbed. The lockdown effectively continued for several months but with a phased easing of restrictions and eventuallya return to some semblance of normality by November 2020. Effectively, the restraining conditions were reduced in a way that followed the infection curve, which peaked in mid-September at about 98,000cases. Bythe 20thNovember,daily infectionshadfallen to 46,000 and on the 2ndFebruary 2021,to a minuscule 11,000 cases.

India complacently allowed itself to believe that the Covid battle had been won and there were few warnings, even from epidemiologists and other experts, of a possible resurgence. Everybody, including the administration, politicians, media commentators and other specialists,argued how beautifully India had handled things. It was true that the economy had paid a price,but it would quickly recover. The main challenge of the pandemic had been addressed. Then, quite abruptly, infection rates began to jump. From about 15,000 new infectionsa day on the 1stMarch 2021, they surged to 354,531 on the 25thApril. As scientists later explained, the virus hadmutated into a strain most virulent and this, together with an irrational level of complacency, created the unprecedented upsurge. India now has 3 million active casescompared with1 million at its peak last September.

Predicting the direction of the pandemic curve is a lot harder. A study by IIT Kanpur, first estimated a pandemic peak around the 11thMay with 3.5 million active cases and a steep decline by the month end. But a week later, and quite hurriedly, they revised the date to the 18thMay with around 4.8 million active cases. Frankly, such forecasts are ultimately based on assumptions and, consequently, can at best be indicative. The Covid infection graph can take two forms. First, the curve peaks and then just as abruptly descends; second, it plateaus for a bit before a more gradual descend. Many suspect that it will be the former. The issue really is when this peak will happen and that is a lot harder to foretell. However, there seems a general perception amongst analysts of a peak anywhere between May 15 and 30. Assuming that new infections follow a similar trajectory to that of recent weeks, a multi-level extrapolation by IMAsuggests that, ifthe curve were to peak say on the 15thMay the daily infection rate would be around 0.55 million, versus about0.8 million should the peak occur on the 30thMay. The number ofactive cases then would bein the region of 3.5 to 5million.

Predicting the direction of the pandemic curve is a lot harder. A study by IIT Kanpur, first estimated a pandemic peak around the 11thMay with 3.5 million active cases and a steep decline by the month end. But a week later, and quite hurriedly, they revised the date to the 18thMay with around 4.8 million active cases. Frankly, such forecasts are ultimately based on assumptions and, consequently, can at best be indicative. The Covid infection graph can take two forms. First, the curve peaks and then just as abruptly descends; second, it plateaus for a bit before a more gradual descend. Many suspect that it will be the former. The issue really is when this peak will happen and that is a lot harder to foretell. However, there seems a general perception amongst analysts of a peak anywhere between May 15 and 30. Assuming that new infections follow a similar trajectory to that of recent weeks, a multi-level extrapolation by IMAsuggests that, ifthe curve were to peak say on the 15thMay the daily infection rate would be around 0.55 million, versus about0.8 million should the peak occur on the 30thMay. The number ofactive cases then would bein the region of 3.5 to 5million.

Statistics aside,the past few weeks have been very tryingpersonally for many of us,having lost family,friends and colleagues to the virus. A crumbling healthcare infrastructure has made our ability to cope so much harder. And the coming few weeks may be even more challenging. But in the end things will be back to some form of normality and as this note has explained, there are statistical reasons to believe so.