Monday November 5, 2018

A Mixed Picture

For now, world growth is strong, led by a resurgent America. However, the upward cycle may begin to turn with a host of risks starting to play out. These include an intensifying US-China trade war; the rise of nationalistic, anti-globalisation sentiment; rising commodity prices; and finally, monetary tightening in the West which has triggered a reversal of the carry-trade to the detriment of emerging markets. At home, India is entering a cycle of elections, which will culminate with the general election next summer. This offers an opportunity to evaluate the administration’s policy performance and take stock of the economy, which my presentation sought to do.

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